A photo collage of Colorado pine (Pinus edulis), also known as pinyon pine, contributed to SEINet, an NSF-supported resource. New NSF-supported research using tree rings shows that the climate envelope theory describing how individuals within a species will respond to a changing climate may not hold true for these trees. Instead of half the distribution benefiting from warming, all trees in all sampled locations are suffering from warming. Without evolutionary change in individual climate tolerances, the Piñon faces extinction as the climate warms. Credit: Patrick Alexander and Mac Licher, via SEINet (CC-BY-SA)
x close
A photo collage of Colorado pine (Pinus edulis), also known as pinyon pine, contributed to SEINet, an NSF-supported resource. New NSF-supported research using tree rings shows that the climate envelope theory describing how individuals within a species will respond to a changing climate may not hold true for these trees. Instead of half the distribution benefiting from warming, all trees in all sampled locations are suffering from warming. Without evolutionary change in individual climate tolerances, the Piñon faces extinction as the climate warms. Credit: Patrick Alexander and Mac Licher, via SEINet (CC-BY-SA)
New data on more than 1,500 trees at nearly 1,000 sites shows that existing theories about how individuals within a species will respond to a changing climate may not be true.
The tree-ring data from Aridland pine contradicts the assumptions underlying climate envelope prediction, which uses the set of climate conditions or “envelopes” a species can live in to predict how it will respond to climate change.
Looking at temperature, individuals of a species in the coldest region – known as the “leading edge” – are predicted to benefit from warming, while those in the warmer region, or “leading edge”, will suffer. If true, the geographic distribution of species may follow a changing climate.
Research has been published while examining tree-ring data Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and led by Margaret Evans and her team at the University of Arizona—found that the trailing edge encompasses the entire geographic distribution of Scots pine, a tree endemic to the Colorado Plateau.
Instead of half the distribution benefiting from warming, all trees in all sampled locations are suffering from warming. Without evolutionary change in individual climate tolerances, the Piñon faces extinction as the climate warms.
Evans shares first authorship on the paper with Kelly Heilman, a former postdoctoral researcher in his lab, and Sharmila Dey, who first came to the lab as a high school volunteer and is now an undergraduate at Harvard University.
More information:
Margaret EK Evans et al, Tree rings reveal transient extinction risk hidden in climate envelope predictions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2315700121
Information from the diary:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences