There’s a lot going on at next week’s WWDC 2024 keynote. The stakes on the presentation are much higher than your standard post-event market moves. The pressure on Tim Cook and crew to deliver the goods is, in a very real sense, even greater than it was before last year’s Vision Pro announcement.
On Monday, Apple will unveil its AI plans. The topic has been a huge question mark over Cupertino for the past few years as competitors like Google and Microsoft have embraced generative artificial intelligence. There is broad agreement that systems based on large language models like ChatGPT and Gemini will profoundly affect how we interact with our devices.
Apple is expected to announce a partnership with OpenAI that will bring the company’s iPhone and Mac smartphones. Apple’s short-term strategy is deep integration between existing properties and generative AI, with Siri at the center. Since its debut in 2011, Apple has tried to make the voice assistant an integral part of all its operating systems.
However, in the past 13 years, Siri has not achieved the revolution that Apple promised. There are many reasons for this, although ability is primary. The concept of an artificial voice assistant predates Siri by decades, but for some reason no one has fully cracked it. As phone manufacturers and app developers have turned smartphones into all-purpose devices, the jobs of these assistants have become increasingly complex.
As impressive as the Stanford Research Institute’s work was, the technology needed for a frictionless experience just wasn’t ready. Siri co-founder Norman Winarsky addressed the underlying problem in 2018, noting that Apple’s original plan was for a much more limited assistant that dealt with things like entertainment and travel. “These are hard problems, and when you’re a billion-person company, the problems are even harder,” Winarsky noted at the time. “They’re probably looking for a level of perfection that they can’t achieve.”
Generative AI is also not at that level of perfection – at least not yet. Hallucinations are still a problem. That’s exactly why, even after the massive hype of the last few years, we still feel like we’re in the baby steps. If anything, I’d say Google was a bit too aggressive in places. The best example of this is the company’s decision to display Gemini results at the top of searches.
When something is prioritized over trusted sources in the world’s search engine, it needs to get things right as humanly possible and not, you know, tell people to eat glue. Google refers to the Gemini results as a product of its “Search Labs,” but most users certainly don’t understand what that means in terms of product maturity or bother to click through for more information.
Over the past few years, I have come across several researchers who have used the term “magic” to describe the “black box” results surrounding large language models. That’s not a knock against all the amazing work going on in space, so much as a realization that there’s still so much we don’t know about the technology.
Arthur C. Clarke said it best: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
One place where Google has been more intentional, however, is the integration of Gemini into Android. Instead of directly replacing the Google Assistant, it integrates its generative AI platform into various applications. Users can also opt-in to assign Gemini as the default setting to the Assistant button on Pixel devices. This implementation requires intentional action on the part of the user, at least for now.
While Gemini hasn’t completely conquered Android yet, Google is clearly signaling that it will replace Assistant in the not-too-distant future. I was half expecting an announcement along those lines at I/O last month, though I’m glad they finally decided to give Gemini more time to bake.
Whether the Assistant name stays is ultimately a branding decision. Apple is very committed to the Siri name. After all, she spent more than a decade pitching the product to consumers. Sooner than later, however, the smart assistant space will be eaten up by generative artificial intelligence.
Voice assistants in general are having an existential moment. Smart speakers have a wider ring for platforms like Siri, Alexa and Google Assistant. Shipments have fallen after heating up during the pandemic. It’s unfair to characterize the category as doomed, but it will be in the long run, without a proper blow.
Generative AI is poised to become the logical successor, but the first round of hardware devices built around these models, including the Humane Ai Pin and Rabbit R1, were just proof of how far the category has to go before it can be considered consistent. experience for ordinary users.
Apple will finally show its hand on Monday. While rumors point to the company shifting a number of employees to generative AI operations in the wake of the EV implosion, all signs point to Apple taking a significant lead over the competition. As such, the most logical play is to partner with a reigning powerhouse like OpenAI.
Shortly after announcing the acquisition of Siri, Steve Jobs was asked if the company was trying to beat Google at its own game. “It’s an AI company,” Jobs noted. “We’re not going to search.” We don’t care. Others do well.”
The company’s approach to generative AI is currently in the same place. At this stage, Apple can’t beat OpenAI at its own game, so it’s collaborating instead. But even the best of the current models have some work to do before they’re ready to fully replace the current crop of smart assistants.