The UK economy showed no growth in April, a blow to Rishi Sunak’s hopes of turning around the Tory party’s faltering election campaign.
According to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, gross domestic product (GDP) was flat during the month after growing 0.4 percent in March.
It follows estimated growth of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, which pulled Britain out of a small recession at the end of last year.
It also comes just over a week before more inflation figures are released and the Bank of England decides on interest rates.
The latest monthly figure will make grim reading for the prime minister, who has made economic growth a central pillar of his election campaign.
He said in March that this year would “prove to be the year the economy bounces back” after the downturn in 2023. Responding to the figures, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “More needs to be done but the economy is turning a corner.” and inflation is back to normal.”
Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the economic growth figures showed the economy had “stalled”.
She said: “Rishi Sunak claims we have turned the corner but the economy has stalled and there is no growth. These figures reveal the damage done after 14 years of Tory chaos.
Economists had predicted that GDP would be flat in April due to weaker than usual sales during the Easter period. Early evidence suggested the wet weather had hit retail and construction output particularly hard.
On a quarterly basis, real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.7 percent in the three months to April, compared with the three months to January 2024.
TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said of the figures: “Our economy is slowing again. This was the worst government for growth in modern times – and working people paid the price.
“Real wages are still lower than in 2008. Unemployment is growing at the fastest rate in the G7. And economic inactivity is at record levels.”
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the stagnation in GDP figures “doesn’t mean the economic recovery has been extinguished”, but that it was “hardly great news for the prime minister” so close to the election.
Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at asset management giant abrdn, said monthly GDP figures could be volatile and that it was “important not to put too much stock in one month and look at the broader trend over several months”.
He added: “And by this measure, a picture is emerging of a solid recovery from last year’s recession. This should continue throughout the year as households benefit from strong real income growth amid falling inflation.”
Suren Thiru, chief economic officer of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said: “Despite this disappointing GDP data, a June rate cut looks unlikely, with the Bank of England likely to be a little wary of a mid-term policy change. election campaigns”.
Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, said: “The market had low expectations for the UK economy in April and they delivered accordingly.
“In an election month when every data release will be closely watched, there is little to change the narrative.”