Boeing Races to Catch SpaceX in Orbit – But Has It Lost?

The International Space Station (ISS) orbits the Earth at an altitude of 250 miles. That doesn’t sound like much. You can drive 250 miles in a cheap sedan in about four hours or fly for an hour (if that).

It’s busy Boeing (B.A 0.15%) Five flight to reach the ISS, however. And when they finally arrived, they found that SpaceX had already gotten there four years earlier.

Third time’s the charm?

Boeing’s first attempt to launch the Starliner spacecraft to the ISS in 2019 ended in failure when an onboard clock error caused the spacecraft to start its engines at the wrong time, sending it on the wrong course and ultimately requiring the spacecraft to turn back. Earth without ever reaching its goal.

Three years later, Boeing made its second attempt to reach the ISS—Orbital Flight Test 2—and despite some mishaps along the way, it managed to dock the unmanned capsule with its destination and then return it to Earth.

Earlier this month, it was time for Boeing to try again, this time with astronauts on board. On June 5, Boeing began its Crew Flight Test mission. On June 6, the Starliner rejoined the ISS.

With caveats.

Even before the Starliner took off from Cape Canaveral, problems were evident in the form of sticky valves and a persistent helium leak that delayed launch by about a month. By the time the Starliner arrived at the ISS, the spacecraft had begun to resemble space Swiss cheese, with three separate leaks in the propulsion system and at least four thrusters malfunctioning. Two more leaks have been detected since docking.

NASA has twice delayed Starliner’s departure for its return flight to Earth, with the most recent target date being June 25, without giving a specific reason – although I think we can guess.

Teams from @NASA and @BoeingSpace targeting NET 25:10 ET June 25 for disconnection #Starliner spaceship from @Space stationlanding early June 26 at White Sands Space Harbor, New Mexico.

More: https://t.co/QouNVM58Jq pic.twitter.com/HzF2KW7rPc

— NASA Commercial Crew (@Commercial_Crew) June 18, 2024

Unconfirmed media reports say that NASA is now considering the potential need to organize a “rescue mission” to retrieve its astronauts if the capsule is deemed unsafe.

Adding insult to injury

Whether things worsen to this point remains to be seen, but the Starliner failures have combined to further damage Boeing’s already tarnished reputation for quality. And that reputation looks all the worse when compared to the stellar performance of SpaceX, Boeing’s competitor for the Commercial Crew Transportation contract to ferry astronauts to and from the ISS — and the likely provider of a spacecraft for any potential rescue mission.

Boeing and SpaceX first won Commercial Crew contracts in 2014, with Boeing winning 61.5% more money for their work because it was considered a more reliable company. Since then, SpaceX has sent astronauts to the ISS on its Crew Dragon capsule 10 times without incident, compared to Boeing’s record of zero without incident (or maybe once with lots of incidents). If NASA is to fly a rescue mission, it’s pretty clear what spacecraft it would use.

And even if no rescue is needed, only Boeing knows SpaceX I would were NASA saviors who chose must sting a little.

Best case scenario

However, we’ll keep our fingers crossed and hope that the Starliner works out in the end. And then what?

As Payload Space reminds us, the Starliner mission to the ISS is still just a test flight. The spacecraft has not yet been “certified” for operational (ie, routine) use and will not be be certified until Boeing went through the design with a fine-tooth comb, found out what was wrong with its leaky craft and defective space jets, and fixed it all.

After that, Boeing still has a contract to fulfill and six manned operational missions to fly to recoup the $4.2 billion it won under its original commercial crew contract.

With six years to go before the ISS is decommissioned and NASA crews flying to the ISS about twice a year, Boeing still has time to raise money — but only if it quickly irons out the Starliner’s bugs. And after 2030, when the ISS retires, it’s still unclear what use — if any — there would be for the Starliner.

Either way, I’m afraid this spaceship’s days are numbered. And Boeing may be out of the human-rated space race for good.