NASA is practicing a strange scenario where an elusive asteroid is headed for Earth

What if a newly discovered asteroid is likely to hit Earth in 14 years?

But that is not all. About 330 to 1,050 feet (or 100 to 320 meters) in diameter, this formidable space rock has just disappeared behind the Sun, making key observations impossible for the next seven months.

Prepare for such an upset screenplayNASA just completed an exercise to “inform and assess our ability as a nation to respond effectively to the threat of a potentially hazardous asteroid or comet.” A possible asteroid or comet collision could pose a number of uncertainties that the space agency continued to test during the recent fifth Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.

“A large asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster that humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take measures to prevent,” Lindley Johnson, NASA’s planetary defense officer emeritus, said in a statement.

Importantly, there are no known asteroids to collide with Earth for at least 100 years, and the chances of a major impact in our lifetime are extremely small, astronomers say. Planetary defense agencies have never needed to raise the alarm about a threatening impact—though you’ve undoubtedly seen sensational reports of threatening asteroids over the years.

“We never actually issued a warning,” Johnson previously told Mashable. (But they have informed the public about what some asteroids of interest are doing.)

“We never actually issued a warning.

But at some point, impact is inevitable. “Yes, asteroids have hit Earth throughout its history, and it will happen again,” notes NASA.

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In the latest asteroid impact scenario, the space agency presented a hypothetical object about 330 to 1,050 feet in diameter that has a 72 percent chance of hitting Earth. Something on this scale, while not by far the largest class of asteroids, could be extremely destructive. Take the 600-foot-deep “meteor crater” that landed in present-day Arizona 50,000 years ago. The culprit was probably about 100 to 170 feet wide, but it created an explosion large enough to destroy Kansas City.

As the hypothetical trajectory below shows, this asteroid is passing over some densely populated areas like Dallas, which would almost certainly trigger a national emergency, although the exact trajectory is uncertain. The scenario’s impact is expected 14 years from now, in July 2038, giving countries a relatively short time to prepare – especially with a seven-month gap in sight. From initial observations, the object’s size, composition and trajectory are uncertain.

“To complicate this year’s hypothetical scenario, the necessary follow-up observations would have to be delayed by at least seven months – a critical time loss – as the asteroid passed behind the Sun as seen from Earth in space,” the space agency. he said.

This latest planetary defense exercise underscores the importance of tracking near-Earth objects (objects within approximately 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit around the Sun). Fourteen years is a rushed timeline.

“You have to know what’s coming, when it’s coming and how hard it’s going to hit,” Eric Christensen, director of the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona, which searches for NEOs, previously told Mashable.

“You have to know what’s coming, when it’s coming and how hard it’s going to hit.

Among the procedures discussed by NASA, FEMA and other partners was a flyby of the incoming object, which would greatly improve our understanding of its composition, rotation, speed and more. Does it break up into smaller pieces in Earth’s atmosphere? Is it like rubble or solid? What is the probability that it will hit the ocean? Also discussed was the main operation, “Purpose-Built Rendezvous”, which involves using a spacecraft to deflect an object.

Asteroid deflection is a real possibility in the future. In 2022, NASA plunged a refrigerator-sized spacecraft into a stadium-sized asteroid with the hope that simply nudging it. It was an unprecedented, successful test – proving that humanity could change the path of a menacing asteroid if it ever headed our way. The impact interrupted asteroid Dimorphos’ loop around its parent asteroid (they travel around the Sun as a pair or binary system) by a whopping 33 minutes and 15 seconds – when the original target was to change it by at least 73 seconds.

This last table impact exercise eventually resulted in a series of “highs”. An obvious problem is the uncertainties associated with planning for likely impact. Participants recommended the development of “the ability to launch NEO quickly [near-Earth object] exploratory mission’, which could involve redesigning existing spacecraft.

Fortunately, NASA and its planetary defense partners will continue to conduct hypothetical asteroid threats. We must be prepared even if the overall risk is low.

Asteroid Impact Risks

Here are today’s general risks from both small and very large asteroids or comets. (Importantly, even relatively small rocks are still dangerous, as demonstrated by the surprising 17-meter rock that exploded over Russia and shattered people’s windows in 2013.

• About 100 tons of dust and sand particles fall through the earth’s atmosphere every day, which burn up immediately.

• Every year, on average, a “car-sized asteroid” passes through our sky and explodes, NASA explains.

• Impacts by objects approximately 460 feet in diameter occur every 10,000 to 20,000 years.

• A “dinosaur-killing” impact from a rock half a mile in diameter or larger takes place on a timescale of 100 million years.