First round for Biden vs Trump and early elections in France

Hello and welcome to the work week.

Ding ding. Buckle up for the first debate of the US presidential election on Thursday – although with President Joe Biden and his challenger, former President Donald Trump on stage, it will look like a rematch in 2020. It will likely be the TikTok stock markets that will get the most attention from American voters . And as FT columnist Ed Luce writes in Washington, it’s not clear who has the most to lose or gain from this mother of all American word wars. One truly remarkable fact is that the combined ages of Biden and Trump are two-thirds older than the country they’re running on.

To make matters worse, across the Atlantic the two main leadership candidates in the UK general election contest will also be presenting it on the BBC. With the polls in dire shape for the Conservative Party, and one poll even showing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak losing his seat, one wonders how useful this showdown will be in changing voters’ minds ahead of the final week of campaigning. Could this be the most skewed result in UK election history?

Meanwhile, France will go to the polls this week with the first round of Sunday’s parliamentary election hastily called by President Emmanuel Macron. Polls indicate strong results for the far-right Rassemblement National. I would recommend reading this FT explainer for likely outcomes.

Politics aside, Paris has a chance to get excited about the Olympic train arriving in the city as the final countdown begins with a month to go until the opening ceremony. In the UK, King Charles hosts Japan’s Emperor Naruhito with a series of events in central London and Windsor, including a state banquet on Tuesday.

Jimmy Lai, a British citizen and former newspaper owner arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist Party, will have his case heard at Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal on Monday. Lai and six co-defendants are seeking to overturn their convictions for unlawful assembly after their participation in a demonstration in August 2019. There are serious concerns about the state of Hong Kong’s justice system, as expressed in this compelling FT Opinion article by former Court of Appeal judge Jonathan Sumption, who earlier this months, he resigned alongside Lawrence Collins as a non-permanent foreign judge of the Court of Appeal. .

The corporate profit faucet was turned on again this week, with retail in particular being the dominant theme H&M, Walgreens Boots Alliance and HalfordsPlus Nike and FedEx. Also watch for a strategy update from Lloyds Banking Group on Thursday. In addition, we will recall the exit of two other companies from the British stock market. For an informed opinion on the debate about London’s future as an engine for raising capital, read this.

Economic data is led by final Q1 GDP figures from the US and UK, plus a slew of surveys and speeches from central bankers. Read more below.

One more thing . . .

Do you watch the footy? As an England fan, I can confirm that it’s best done with friends, if only to give you some insight into life that isn’t all about football – God help you if you watch England games any other way. The FT has its own take on whether we have too much sport.

Wednesday is the 28th anniversary of the Euro ’96 semi-final at Wembley between England and Germany. The teams played out a 1-1 draw before goalless extra time and a subsequent penalty shoot-out, in which Gareth Southgate missed the Three Lions’ decisive sixth kick to allow Andreas Möller to score the winner. I probably don’t need to tell you that Southgate is now England manager, or perhaps that his team’s last group game is on Tuesday. Make sure you find your safe space to watch.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, click reply.

Personally, I’ll be out of the office for the next seven days, enjoying some post-exam time with my oldest, and then taking my middle child on college trips. I will leave you in the very capable hands of my colleague David Hindley and return in a fortnight.

Economic and business news

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect this week in terms of corporate news and economic data.

Monday

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is hosting an online presentation for the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, Workers, Jobs, Growth and Inflation – Today and Tomorrow, followed by a press call.

• The Tui Group The shares are expected to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange following shareholder approval at the company’s general meeting in February.

• USA: The IMF’s annual review of the US economy

Tuesday

• Germany: data on monthly construction orders

• Result: Carnival Q2, FedEx Q4, Saga AGM Business Statement

Wednesday

• Australia: May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate data

• USA: The Federal Reserve publishes its annual bank stress test results

• Result: The world of AO FYI, General Mills Q4, Liontrust Asset Management FYI, Micron technology Q3, PayChex Q4, Volex FY

Thursday

• Indivorthe transfer of the company’s primary listing to the US will become effective after approval by shareholders at a general meeting in May.

• Australia: May labor market statistics

• UK: Bank of England report on the stability of the UK financial system

• US: final Q1 GDP data

• Result: Bunzl business statement, Halfords FYI, Curries FYI, H&M HY, Lloyds Banking Group strategy update, Moon pig FYI, James Latham FYI, Nike Q4, Heart HY, Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3, Swiss watch FY

Friday

• Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series: Paris. The speakers include Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin and Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau.

• EU: European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey

• Germany: May labor market statistics

• New Zealand: Matariki. Financial markets closed.

• UK: final Q1 GDP figures plus Zoopla house price index

• US: May data on personal income and expenditure

• Result: Record FY

World events

Here’s a rundown of this week’s other events and milestones.

Monday

• Hong Kong: Final appeal court hearing for Jimmy Lai, a British citizen and former newspaper owner who was arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist Party.

• USA: Genaro García Luna, Mexico’s former public security minister, will be sentenced in a New York courtroom after being convicted of continuing criminal enterprise, conspiracy to distribute narcotics, conspiracy to import narcotics and making false statements.

Tuesday

• China: The 15th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum’s New Champions begins in Dalian and runs until Thursday.

• France: A televised debate ahead of the vote in the French parliamentary elections, pitting Prime Minister Gabriel Attal against National Assembly President Jordan Bardella and Leftist Alliance leader Manuel Bompard.

• United Kingdom: King Charles and Queen Camilla officially welcome Japan’s Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako on their state visit. The day in London will end with a state banquet at Buckingham Palace.

• USA: Sentencing in a Miami courtroom of former British Virgin Islands Prime Minister Andrew Fahie, convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to launder money, interstate and foreign travel in support of racketeering and other charges.

Wednesday

• Russia: Trial hearing against Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich to begin in secret.

• Great Britain: The BBC is hosting a live election debate in Nottingham between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer. Separately, the Glastonbury music and arts festival opens in fields near Pilton, Somerset, with expected crowds of around 200,000.

• US: Rim of the Pacific 2024 (Rimpac 24) military exercise begins, with 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national ground forces, more than 150 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel taking part in the two-year exercise, which is being held in Honolulu this year. Hawaii. It will last until August 2.

Thursday

• EU: meeting of the European Council of Heads of State and Government chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.

• UK: Junior doctors in England are launching a five-day strike in the British Medical Association’s ongoing dispute with the government over pay.

• USA: CNN hosts the first televised presidential debate of the presidential election campaign between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Friday

Saturday

• Italy: The 111th Tour de France cycling race begins with the first stage, which starts this year in Florence.

• Mauritania: presidential election

Sunday

• Canada: Princess Anne visits St. John at the Newfoundland National War Memorial Centennial Commemoration and Reinterment of the Remains of the Unknown First World War Newfoundland Soldier.

• EU: Belgium ends its six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungary will take over the government tomorrow.

• France: first round of voting in early parliamentary elections in the country