We’ve enjoyed a number of celestial spectacles in recent years—from total solar eclipses to stunning auroras—yet Earth is about to witness a cosmic event to top them all.
Asteroid 99942 Apophis will visit us in the next five years and it will come so close that we will be able to see it with the naked eye.
Indeed, the upcoming flyby is so special that the European Space Agency (ESA) has hailed it as “one of the rarest space events of our lifetimes”.
“Scientists believe that an asteroid the size of Apophis will approach Earth only once every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” ESA said on Twitter/X.
The exceptionality of this phenomenon lies both in the proximity of the asteroid to Earth and in its impressive size.
A space rock measures about 375 meters (1,230 ft) in diameter, making it a substantial projectile.
Images of Apophis taken at three wavelengths(ESAHerschel/PACS/MACH-11/MPE/B.Altieri (ESAC) and C. Kiss (Konkoly Observatory))
Apophis was first discovered in 2004, when experts placed it at Level 2 on the Turin Impact Hazard Scale.
According to this index, a score of 0 means that the probability of an impact on our planet is more or less zero, while 10 means that the impact is “certain” and “capable of causing a global climate catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization.” you know whether it affects the land or the ocean.”
So while Level 2 is low – denoting objects that make a “somewhat close but not too unusual close flyby of Earth” – it’s not low enough to rule out its potential risks.
And indeed, observations made in December 2004 bumped the asteroid up to level 4 on the Turin scale, increasing the chance of it hitting Earth in 2029 to 1.6 percent.
And if one percent doesn’t sound too scary, note that, according to NASA’s calculations, a one percent collision probability means the object is still capable of causing “regional devastation.”
In fact, in the years that space agency professionals have spent hunting and tracking near-Earth objects (NEOs), no object has surpassed level 4 on the Turin scale.
And its potential threat to Earth has even earned the asteroid the name Apophis, in honor of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and disorder.
The good news is that NASA has since emphasized that “new telescope observations will most likely lead [Apophis’s] reassignment to level 0.”
And while we will see a number of close encounters with the asteroid in the coming years, collisions in 2029, 2036 and 2068 have been ruled out.
“An impact in 2068 is no longer possible in the realm,” said Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, adding: “Our calculations show no risk of an impact for at least the next 100 years. “
Still, Apophis will come particularly close in 2029, coming within 32,000 km (20,000 miles) of Earth’s surface—closer than some of our man-made satellites.
It will be so close that it should be visible from the Eastern Hemisphere without the aid of binoculars or binoculars. IFL science comment.
During the approach, NASA plans to visit the asteroid with its OSIRIS APEX asteroid sampler.
“Our planet’s gravitational force is expected to alter the asteroid’s path, change the way and speed of its rotation around its axis, and possibly cause tremors or landslides that alter its surface,” NASA said of the intended mission. “OSIRIS-APEX will allow scientists on Earth to observe these changes.
“Additionally, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will dive to the surface of Apophis—a ‘rocky’ asteroid made of silicate (or rocky) material and a mixture of metallic nickel and iron—and fire its engines to kick up loose rocks and dust. ” it continued.
“This maneuver will allow scientists to peer into the composition of material just below the surface of the asteroid.”
ESA also hopes to visit the asteroid, noting that studying the flyby will help us better prepare ourselves against potential future collisions with similar objects.
“Earth’s gravity will ‘stretch’ and ‘squeeze’ Apophis, triggering landslides and revealing much about the material, structure, density and cohesion of the asteroid,” the space agency said.
“This knowledge will help us protect the Earth in the future.”
Still, on this occasion, it’s nice to know that the asteroid isn’t a threat, just a rare and beautiful sight.
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