In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a possible solar storm watch. A gigantic cluster of sunspots was blazing and spewing material headed straight for Earth.
A few hours later, the watch was replaced with a warning: A storm classified as a G4 — on a “G” scale of 1 to 5 — was approaching. That weekend, solar activity was even stronger, creating an aurora that stunned people as far south as Arizona. Behind the scenes, space weather scientists have been working around the clock to ensure that the potential for catastrophic effects, such as widespread power outages or communications failures, remains at a minimum.
According to Mike Bettwy, a meteorologist and chief of operations for NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, the lack of data can make forecasting solar storms difficult. The agency is working to change that: SpaceX’s GOES-U spacecraft, the latest in a family of satellites designed to monitor the sun’s influence on our atmosphere, is scheduled to launch Tuesday, especially as it nears the peak of its activity cycle. .
Mr Bettwy spoke to The New York Times about what it means to predict space weather and the challenge of trying to understand the often unpredictable sun. This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
How does the space weather forecast system work?
Our Boulder office is one of many regional watch centers around the world. There are others in Sweden, the United Kingdom and Australia. We work together by comparing and sharing our forecasting models, all of which are slightly different.
Similar to terrestrial weather, storm watches will go out first and warnings will be issued when we are more certain of what is coming. Alerts are triggered when weather has actually been observed.
We work regularly with NASA’s Moon to Mars Weather Analysis Office, which does a lot of computer modeling of the Sun. And we notify NASA’s Cosmic Ray Analysis Group whenever there might be potential exposure to astronauts on the International Space Station.
We’re also talking every day with the North America Electric Reliability Corporation, which keeps the grid up and running, about what might be coming. They then inform their own subsidiaries across the country and Canada.
What instruments are used to monitor solar activity?
The Solar Ultraviolet Imager, which is on the GOES-16 satellite, is what we use the most. It monitors the temperatures on the Sun’s surface and shows us the evolution of sunspots and their surrounding environment.
Two other important satellites are NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer and our Deep Space Climate Observatory. They are about a million miles from Earth. That sounds far, but there are actually 93 million miles between us and the Sun, and the plasma that flows from it is moving at high speeds. We really only have an hour or less before it gets to these satellites before we know we’re going to be hit.
There is also a system of magnetometers, sensors that detect changes in the Sun’s magnetic field, scattered around the world.
How could the forecasting system be improved?
More satellites would help incredibly. Ideally – and this will never happen because it is not financially feasible – we would have a satellite every million miles between the Earth and the Sun. With more satellites, we could see how the solar material evolves and changes as it approaches us.
The new GOES-U satellite will have a coronagraph that will take pictures of the Sun and get higher resolution data to help us make predictions.
Better modeling of space weather is also underway. There is a lot of data with Earth’s weather. We are just absolutely spoiled by tons of insights. We just don’t have it with space weather. It is difficult to make difficult decisions with only one or two key pieces of information.
We are also working on changing our tracking, alerting and warning system. Right now we don’t have the ability to release G5 watches. When we release a G4 watch, that technically means G4 or higher. And we can only release the G3 with warnings.
We are working with our international partners to review this. Not only will it give us the ability to communicate more accurately, but it will make it easier for non-technical people to understand what we’re talking about.
Isn’t it terrifying to know that we are at the whims of the unpredictable sun?
It can be daunting. But over the past decades we have learned to live with the sun. We got to know his strength and what he can do. Most agencies have appropriate measures in place to deal with this.
When you get a really intense storm, there’s always the possibility that it will have a bigger impact than we planned. And that’s the part that keeps us up at night. We want to make sure that even in the worst case, everything will be fine.
What is the worst case scenario?
The Carrington event of 1859 is like the granddaddy of events when it comes to space weather. It was the most intense geomagnetic storm ever recorded, with widespread impact on communications around the world.
We live in a different world now. Technology has come a long way since then. So we are trying to prepare for that. If we have another Carrington Event, we want our infrastructure – the power grid, satellites, aviation and internet – to remain largely functional.
What should we expect as the sun approaches maximum activity?
The sun is definitely entering its more active phase. A few days after the last solar storm, we had one of the most powerful eruptions seen since 2005. It came from the same sunspot cluster just before it turned away from the west side of the Sun.
But we don’t know when solar maximum will occur until it happens. The general consensus is that it will be between late 2024 and early 2026. The probability of more G4 events occurring over the next few years is quite high. G5 activity is a bit uncertain, but the chance of seeing it again is possible.
You can prepare for space weather just like you can prepare for thunderstorm or tornado season. Prepare emergency kits. Be prepared for power outages and interruptions.
I worked at NASA during the 2003 Halloween storm, and my biggest takeaway was that it could have been worse. Now, more than 20 years later, our overall preparedness is even greater. So even if we were to see a more significant event than what we saw in early May, I’d like to think the consequences would be fairly minimal.