ULA needs to launch a second Vulcan rocket

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It’s easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees when reporting on the day-to-day life of the space industry. I often find myself needing to take a step back and go through why an event or announcement matters, because what a space company or agency thinks is obviously important doesn’t immediately resonate with CNBC’s audience.

A great example of this this week is the United Launch Alliance’s Cert-2 mission.

If you’re in the weeds of the space world, hearing CEO Tory Bruno announce that ULA is going to bite the bullet and fly Cert-2 without a customer payload is a wild statement. After all, aren’t rockets expensive? Don’t rockets often wait months or even years before spacecraft are ready for launch? Why send an empty Vulcan at $100 million per orbit that no one will pay for, especially if ULA has sold more than 70 launches to customers?

The simple answer is that Cert-2 has a customer: the Pentagon. But let’s break it down.

National security missions are the most lucrative launch contracts in the billions of dollars a year in missile orders. Some of these are low-cost, experimental missions, but most are expensive, top-secret satellites that the Pentagon doesn’t want to let just anyone fly. Enter the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program.

ULA and SpaceX are already in the NSSL program, but whenever they bring a new rocket to market, Space Force requires a specific one the rocket successfully launched before being certified to fly on the NSSL mission. Hence the name of Vulcan’s second mission, Cert-2. The rocket took off for the first time in January, which was the first launch towards certification.

“What Space Force wants to see with Cert-2 is another successful flight just like Cert-1,” Bruno said at a press conference Wednesday.

After Cert-2, ULA will send Space Force “gigabytes of data for all the equipment on every part of the rocket,” Bruno said, and assuming they “don’t find any surprises,” Vulcan will be clear to launch the NSSL mission. .

ULA had planned to fly Sierra Space’s inaugural Dream Chaser cargo spacecraft on Cert-2, but Bruno said company CEO Tom Vice “felt it was taking too much risk against my needs. Dream Chaser is moving aside to be replaced by an “inert payload”, also known as a “bulk simulator” (think big block of concrete and metal) so Cert-2 can be launched by September.

Why the rush?

Well, the Pentagon has already bought a bunch of Vulcan launches and expects two of those missions — USSF-106 and USSF-87 — to fly by the end of the year. Air Force chief Frank Calvelli had already been pressing Bruno and ULA in a letter sent last month to the rocket company’s joint owners, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, outlining concerns “about the Vulcan delay.” The Air Force also fined ULA an undisclosed amount over the Vulcan delays.

One question mark that hung over the next three Vulcan missions is at least largely resolved: Blue Origin’s ability to supply the BE-4 engines for the rockets. The company supplied ULA with the six engines needed for its three launches, and Bruno noted that he has “much more confidence” in the relationship. That wasn’t the case a year ago, Bruno said, noting that his company was “very concerned” about securing the engines ULA needs. That’s when Blue Origin exploded the BE-4 engine during acceptance tests – the engine that was intended for the Cert-2 launch.

On-time deliveries of BE-4 engines will become even more important next year, as Bruno expects ULA to conduct 20 launches in 2025, half on Atlas V rockets and half on Vulcan. The company has 16 Atlas V rockets left to launch before going all-in on Vulcan.

The Pentagon is ULA’s most important customer. So while the military doesn’t have to pay for Cert-2 directly, the backlog of NSSL orders is why ULA is willing to pay out of pocket to launch the mission.

Oh, and there’s another open question about ULA’s long-rumored sale process. I thought, like everyone else, that the Vulcan’s successful debut earlier this year would seal the deal. Aside from Jeff Bezos selling shares earlier this year, Blue Origin looked like the likely winner. I’m speculating, but whoever wants to buy ULA can wait until Cert-2 – or maybe a friendlier FTC if there’s a change in the White House this November.

• Russia’s malfunctioning satellite disintegrated in orbit and has ‘over 100 pieces of traceable debris’ as a result according to the US Space Command. NASA has issued a spacecraft shelter-in-place order for astronauts on the International Space Station as a precaution. The debris cloud was monitored for an hour before the station was cleared to resume normal operations. Space Command and LeoLabs identified the satellites as decommissioned RESURS-P1. – Space Command / NASA / LeoLabs
• China Returns Moon Samples: The Chang’e 6 capsule landed carrying 2 kilograms of lunar material, the first brought from the far side of the moon. – SpaceNews
• NASA and Boeing delay the return of the Starliner crew indefinitely as the agency and the company try to analyze and review other spacecraft performance data, particularly the thruster and helium issues. NASA emphasized that the Starliner can return to the ISS at any time in the event of an emergency. – NASA
• SpaceX reveals the backpack-sized Starlink Mini antenna, is offering a limited initial release to US customers for a compact, mobile variant of the company’s satellite indoor terminals. – CNBC
• RTX Collins Aerospace subsidiary pulls out of ISS space suit contract: The company, which has so far raised $97 million to develop new spacesuits, is ending its role in the program. – Reuters
• ESA official doesn’t think ‘Starship will change the game’ or a real competitor:’ The European Space Agency’s director of space transport Toni Tolker-Nielsen claimed that Arianespace’s long-delayed Ariane 6 rocket is “perfect for the job” of launching satellites, unlike Starship, which “is designed to fly people to the moon and Mars”. Additionally, Tolker-Nielsen said ESA decided not to make Ariane 6 a reusable rocket because “our launch needs are so low that it wouldn’t make economic sense.” – SpaceNews
• Firefly adds Virginia and Sweden as Alpha launch locations: The rocket can launch from NASA’s Wallops launch site as early as next year and from the Esrange Space Center as early as 2026. – Firefly / Firefly
• Rocket Lab launches Electron’s 50th mission, achieving the milestone “faster than any commercially developed rocket in history”. The company’s first Electron launched in May 2017. – Rocket Lab
• SpaceX launches 10th Falcon Heavy rocket with NOAA GOES-U satellite heading for geostationary orbit. The satellite is the fourth in a series of weather monitoring satellites manufactured by Lockheed Martin for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. – SpaceNews
• Aster shareholders sue for founders’ private action, claims the deal restricts public investors by undervaluing the company. – Bloomberg
• NASA is conducting a planetary defense exercise along with other federal organizations, they worked on a hypothetical scenario in which an asteroid had a high chance of hitting Earth and how the US would respond. – NASA
• Astrobotic has built an “Earth-like lunar landscape” for testing landers and rovers at his facility in Mojave, California, which he called the “Lunar Surface Proving Ground”. – Astrobotic
• NASA is studying how to build a habitat out of mushrooms in concept evaluation through Ames, California, to look at new multi-purpose materials for building structures on other planetary bodies. – NASA

• SpaceX’s valuation reportedly reaches $210 billion as the company prepares for a secondary insider offering at $112 per share. – Bloomberg
• SpaceX has won an $843 million contract to build a NASA spacecraft to return to the ISS after it retires in 2030: The company will build the US Deorbit vehicle that will guide the International Space Station back into Earth’s atmosphere. – CNBC
• MDA won the $730 million ($1 billion) Canadarm3 contract. from the Canadian Space Agency to be used on the Gateway lunar space station. – MDA / CSA
• Spanish rocket company PLD invests $10.7 million (€10 million) at the Guyana Space Center in Kourou for MIURA 5 launches – PLD Space
• Comcast signs an enterprise connectivity agreement with Starlink, which the US telecommunications giant notes is “the first major network provider” to partner with SpaceX’s satellite internet service. Financial terms and timing of the service have not been disclosed. – Comcast
• Intelsat signs Starfish Space satellite service mission starting in 2026, the launch company’s Otter spacecraft will land and maneuver a retired Intelsat satellite in the graveyard’s geostationary orbit. – Intelsat
• Maritime connectivity provider KVH has signed a collective agreement with Starlink, by prepaying data as part of the extension of the previous contract. KVH also has an agreement on Eutelsat Oneweb capacity. – KVH
• German startup LiveEO raised $27 million (€25 million) in a round led by NordicNinja and DeepTech & Climate Fonds (DTCF), as the company seeks to expand its satellite imagery analysis platform. – Via satellite

• Planet lay off about 17% of the workforce, representing approximately 180 employees. The layoffs mark the satellite imagery and data company’s second round in less than a year. Planet said the job cuts will result in a one-time charge of about $10 million, but is sticking to its previous financial guidance. – Planet
• Airbus took $1 billion off its satellite programs in the first half of the year, the company disclosed but did not specify which of its telecommunications, navigation or observation satellite projects were affected. – Via satellite

• Dave Mackay is retiring Virgin Galacticresigned as chief pilot after 19 years in the company. CJ Sturckow will take over as the company’s chief pilot. He joined the company in 2013 from NASA. – Virgin Galactic
• Chris Sambar joins AST SpaceMobile board of directors, as AT&T Head of Network takes the seat previously held by Alex Coleman, chairman of SPAC-sponsor New Providence Acquisition Corp. In addition, a trio of AST executives joined their previous roles, with Scott Wisniewski named President and Chief Strategy Officer, Shanti Gupta adding Chief Operations Officer to his previous role of Chief Accounting Officer, and Andrew Johnson adding Chief Financial Officer to his Chief Legal Officer position. – AST / AST

• June 28: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches mission NROL-186 from California.
• July 1: Firefly Alpha launches NASA’s VCLS demonstration mission from California.
• July 2: NASA astronauts go into space on the ISS.
• July 2: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.