The Apple Vision Pro is awesome, but no one wants it

After much anticipation and fanfare, Apple released its entry into the mixed reality headset market in February 2024. The Vision Pro is undoubtedly a remarkable technological achievement. Apple believed it was the product that would give the company a dominant position in spatial computing—the merging of the physical and digital worlds. However, the Vision Pro has not been embraced by the market, and recent news from Apple suggests that they are rethinking their plan. What happened to Apple’s dream of mass adoption of spatial computing and what can we learn from it?

At first the experience is nothing short of wow

Spend 30 minutes in an Apple store demoing their Vision Pro and it’s clear that it’s a computing and engineering marvel. Its specifications are off the charts: two OLED displays with 23 million pixels, 12 cameras, five sensors, six microphones and an M2 chip. Yuck!

Apple packed a lot into such a small size, and the sensory experience exceeds expectations. For example, in the demo, the user is transported to a rehearsal room with Alicia Keys and her band, and it feels and sounds almost magical. That alone is worth the 30 minute demo.

Using the Vision Pro as a computer allows the user to open multiple virtual screens of their favorite applications. These screens appear suspended in front of the user and each can be easily zoomed in and out. Interaction involves special hand gestures such as pinching and dragging, and many actions involve eye movements.

Handling the device is compelling, with a familiar Apple UI feel, and the performance of every action feels natural and responsive.

Is there a market for spatial computing today?

Apple has made a bet that this rich, immersive and virtual experience will represent the next generation computing platform, and with its reputation for design and user-friendly utility, it is quickly establishing itself as a leader. Despite a phenomenal record of product success, Apple missed out on this high-profile release. What exactly did they do wrong?

The Apple Vision Pro was not the first in this category. Not even close. The earliest head-mounted displays for computing and virtual reality (VR), also known as VR headsets, date back to the 1960s.

More recently, in 2016, Sony released its PlayStation VR headsets, and in 2018, Meta went to market with the Oculus Go. Although largely aimed at the gaming market, both Sony and Meta have seen reasonable success, selling 5 and 20 million units to date, respectively. Recently, sales have slowed significantly, with Sony even halting production while current inventory is dwindling.

Microsoft’s VR venture with its much-vaunted HoloLens – saw some limited success in an enterprise context, but eventually ended its mixed reality efforts in 2023.

Leaders like Sony, Meta and Microsoft, for all their resources and marketing clout, have discovered the truth: the size of the VR headset market, while not trivial, is narrow and niche.

Did Apple and its cubicles full of analysts have access to market data that others did not?

Apple seems to be betting that with an innovative product and a much broader set of uses, it could create a mass market for 3D computing. To Apple’s credit, their reputation for building massive market demand has been impressive when you look at products like the iPod, iPad, and iPhone, which have collectively sold billions of units.

This year, however, Apple now expects to sell only around 450,000 Vision Pros, well short of their first-year target of 800,000. Compare that to the 73 million Apple iPads sold in the first year.

On the first day, the most egregious prize was the Vision Pro. Starting at $3,500, that figure eclipsed the likes of the Meta headset, which retailed for around $500. Sure, the features aren’t exactly a fair comparison, but Apple’s price was nowhere near that.

A small market and high price weren’t the only headwinds Apple faced.

Innovative technology is not enough to succeed in the market

By offering a wide range of compelling uses, Apple is betting that large numbers of people will adopt spatial computing for their daily work, learning and entertainment. For this to happen, it required a significant change in behavior. The evidence from other vendors just didn’t support it, and it turned out the same for Apple.

Not long after purchasing and getting over the novelty factor, many users began to wonder how they could use the device. Added to this is the lack of Vision Pro-specific apps and media. It’s no surprise that Apple has seen a high number of returns, with more than a few units popping up on sites like eBay.

The typically excited interest in a new Apple product also quickly subsided. Social media mentions and Google searches have plummeted in just a few short weeks.

Another problem that was also difficult to overcome was the form factor. While wearing the headset to play a game or for a short workout might be acceptable, putting the headset on for hours of web surfing or watching a movie was not convincing. Many users reported that the headset did not offer a compelling upgrade over their traditional setups.

It doesn’t help that the Vision Pro weighs 1.4 pounds. That’s a lot of weight to strap around your head without discomfort for any length of time. More than a few people have also reported health issues including motion sickness, black eyes, headaches and eye strain from long-term use. Many of these issues are common complaints about the VR headset modality.

What’s next for Spatial Computing and Vision Pro?

There’s a lot to love about Apple’s first-generation Vision Pro, and to be fair, it has many enthusiastic users. Anyone who uses the device for the first time is quickly surprised by how much the experience feels like a big leap forward.

But the sobering sales results of Apple and other vendors clearly indicate that there is not yet a mass market opportunity for spatial computing as it stands.

Great technology alone is not enough to succeed in the market.

Reports suggest that while Apple has no plans to continue this Vision Pro model, they aren’t giving up on spatial computing and that a cheaper product with fewer features could emerge in a year or two. By then, the market may be ready and compelling uses will be more apparent.

To succeed in the mass market, spatial computing must solve problems and create experiences in a way that is accessible and in a form factor that is no more intrusive than wearing regular glasses.

But first prize goes to the company that finally creates an immersive experience that requires no head.

Holodeck, anyone?