- Prospects for the altcoin season continue to decline as TOTAL2 market cap remains elusive for BTC.
- Although some analysts see a buying opportunity, the market trend suggests it is a long way off.
For months now, analysts have believed that altcoin season is just around the corner. But in these times these predictions did not come true. Again, the same speculation is spreading across Bitcoin [BTC] the price fell to a two-month low.
Altcoin season, popularly called alt season, refers to a cycle where other cryptocurrencies outperform BTC. To validate this market stage, at least 75% of the top 50 alts by market cap must outperform the number one cryptocurrency.
But in this cycle, many of these cryptocurrencies have struggled to match Bitcoin’s dominance. In most cases, Bitcoin has led the rise and fall of the broader crypto market.
Will Alts Catch Bitcoin Later?
One technical indicator that says “yes” or “no” to the season is the TOTAL2 chart. This chart measures the total market capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies on the market except for BTC.
When this indicator jumps, it gives credence to the possibility of an approaching alt season. But the significant decline suggests the opposite.
According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, TOTAL2’s market capitalization was $960.23 billion at press time. This was an increase of 25.63% over the past six months. However, the last 30 days up to the last 24 hours have been grueling for her.
Source: TradingView
Specifically, the value has fallen by 15.08% over the past month and by 4.13% over the past seven days. Given the current state of affairs, it might be reasonable to say that altcoins may not see a respite anytime soon.
However, if the value begins to rise and approaches the $1 trillion market cap, then the possibility of an overall price increase may increase.
According to some analysts, memes should lead
Meanwhile, several analysts have commented on the possible performance of these coins. For example, Murad, an analyst at X, opined that memecoins will lead the rise whether the altcoin season comes or not.
Murad noted in his post that
“If alt season happens, memes will surpass alt. Unless there is an alt season, memes will surpass alt.”
From the performance of cryptocurrencies this year, it cannot be denied that his opinion might be valid. This is because meme coins like Pepe [PEPE]Bonk [BONK]Floki [FLOKI]and a number of others have outperformed many other altcoins.
If this remains the case even as the market recovers, Murad’s position would be vindicated. Another pseudonymous trader, Mister Crypto, did not state his preference.
However, on July 1, he mentioned that the drop in prices offered a rare buying opportunity. wrote,
“To be honest, so many altcoin charts look like great buys right now. Most of them easily 30 times.”
The role of ETH did not come into play
While these predictions are subject to market conditions, there were others looking at the ETH/BTC chart to confirm their bias. The ETH/BTC chart shows whether Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum [ETH] or is it the other way around.
Historically, when ETH beats BTC at its own game, it offers altcoins a chance to outperform the king coin. But if BTC leads, the altcoin season is hard to beat.
At press time, AMBCrypto found that the ETH/BTC chart had fallen to 0.054. This was a decrease of 1.62% in the last seven days. A few days ago the price was 0.056.
Source: TradingView
But the recent value means that 1 ETH can only buy 0.054 BTC. If it improves, the altcoin season will improve. If not, the market phase could be delayed.
Meanwhile, the broader market could wait for spot Ethereum ETFs to start trading before getting confirmation of altcoin season.
Realistic or not, here is ETH market cap in BTC terms
Although the event was originally predicted to start on July 2nd, expectations have now shifted to July 8th.
If ETH mirrors Bitcoin’s performance after its own approval in January, it would be great for altcoins. If not, altcoin season may be far off.