A new report warns that basic food prices could rise by 2030

The pandemic, soaring interest rates and geopolitical conflicts have seen the price of many UK staples rise dramatically, including olive oil, baked beans and granulated white sugar. A new study has outlined where prices could go in the next few years.

Which products are expected to be the most expensive by 2030?

According to online shopping platform BravoVoucher, olive oil is expected to be one of the most affected products by 2030. Its price has increased by 113.8% between 2019 and 2024 (to £8.04 by March 2024) for a 500ml 1 liter bottle.

Now BravoVoucher estimates that unless inflation slows, olive oil prices could potentially rise to around £17.19 by 2030. However, if inflation can be reduced to 2% by the end of the decade, olive oil prices could rise at a relatively moderate pace, touching almost £9.05 by 2030.

Olive oil prices continue to be heavily impacted by the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, particularly due to the subsequent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on container and cargo ships, which have caused significant disruption to oil routes and supplies in the UK and around the world.

Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Tunisia are some of the world’s largest producers of olive oil. However, rising temperatures across Europe, particularly southern Europe, leading to drought, poor rainfall and a warmer than expected 2023-2024 winter have contributed to a poor olive harvest recently. This has also gone a long way towards keeping olive oil prices consistently high.

Baked bean prices have also risen, with the staple increasing by 70.5% to £1.04 per 400-425g tin between 2019 and 2024. But there could be more to come, with the breakfast favorite potentially rising to around £1.17 by 2030 if plans to reduce inflation go well. If not, consumers may have to shell out around £1.77 a can.

Baked bean prices have risen over the past few years largely because manufacturers such as Heinz have raised prices to boost unit profitability, a move some critics have condemned as fueling “greed”. Similar shrinkagegreedflation occurs when corporations or businesses deliberately keep product prices high, even in a cost-of-living scenario or high inflation, to maximize profits.

Another key ingredient, granulated white sugar, could also become significantly more expensive, with prices already skyrocketing to £1.19 per kg in March 2024, an increase of 67.6%. By 2030, if UK inflation falls to 2%, granulated white sugar could see a slight rise to around £1.34, but if not, it could cost £1.99 a kilo by then.

Sugar prices have risen recently mainly as producers face higher energy bills, with the production of sugarcane, especially for products such as ethanol, sugar and molasses, a particularly energy-intensive process.

Additionally, higher fertilizer costs and poor harvests in key sugar-producing countries such as India due to drought and unseasonal rainfall have also put pressure on prices.

This has also had an impact on other products such as biscuits, chocolate and other sweet treats for which sugar and sugar products are a key ingredient.

Still mineral water could also be left out of several shopping baskets in 2030 if inflation continues, as prices could reach around £1.74 a bottle by then. In a more optimistic inflation scenario, prices could be closer to £1.17, a slight increase from £1.04 per bottle in 2024. Mineral water has already seen a 67.7% increase in price over the past five years.

Bottled water prices have been rising recently due to rising oil and chemical prices. This is because water treatment plants require significant amounts of fuel and chemicals such as activated carbon, aluminum sulfate, and ammonia, among others, to treat the water.

However, the role of fuel in the production of bottled water is not limited to nuclear water treatment activities. A significant amount of oil is also required to produce plastic bottles. Due to rising petrol and diesel prices, transportation costs have also been added, resulting in all these costs being passed on to consumers.

Similarly, plain biscuits could quickly become unaffordable for many, estimated to cost around £1.52 per 200-300g pack in 2030 if inflation is on track, but around £2.25 per pack if not . This is largely due to the rising cost of ingredients such as sugar and flour.

Cheese and chicken are also likely to see price increases

Consumers could also see cornflakes become more expensive as skimmed milk prices are expected to rise to around £1.83 for two pints by 2030 unless inflation is brought under control. If prices fall, two pints are likely to cost £1.40.

You may have to pay somewhere between £9.85 and £11.10 for your choice of cheddar cheese by the end of the decade, depending on which way inflation goes.

Fresh and chilled whole chicken is also expected to rise to £5.31 per kg if inflation remains as it is now. If not, a kg can cost £4.31.

In addition, the price of broccoli could see a significant increase to £3.32 per kg by 2030, from £2.50 per kg in 2024, if inflation does not fall. If so, a kg of broccoli is likely to cost around £2.82.

Parents may also need to fork out more for powdered baby formula, with a pack expected to cost somewhere between £13.44 and £14.97 by the end of the decade.

How the data was collected

The most recent report was based on a previous study using data from the Office for National Statistics, where the platform looked at food price inflation for basic items between 2019 and 2024.

The 2030 forecasts have been split into two sets of forecasts, one of which will return to the Bank of England’s 2% target by 2030 and the other likely to apply if inflation remains the same as it is today and does not decrease.

Marco Farnararo, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and co-founder of BravoVoucher, said: “This research provides a frightening glimpse into the future of food prices if current inflationary trends continue. Of particular concern is the dramatic rise in prices for everyday essentials such as olive oil and baked beans. It emphasizes the urgent need for effective economic policies to stabilize inflation and protect consumers.

“While food prices continue to rise, there are steps customers can take to help keep costs down. For example, taking advantage of store offers or vouchers can help keep prices down, but don’t be tempted to buy unnecessary items just because they’re on offer. It’s also important to keep track of what you already have before you buy to avoid overspending.”