Soapbox features allow our individual writers and contributors to voice their opinions on hot topics and random things they’ve chewed on. Today, Gavin reflects on what “success” looks like for systems with incredibly popular predecessors…
Looking back at Nintendo’s home console hardware sales over the past four decades, the line drawn by the lifetime numbers for each system shows a steady decline over the first two decades, before a couple of huge electrocardiogram-style peaks brought us to today.
A strong start with 61.91 million Famicom/NES units sold was followed by a remarkable 49.1 million Super Famicom/Nintendos. The N64’s 32.93 million and the GameCube’s 21.74 million aren’t exactly bad, but the need for a shake-up was clear. The Wii did it in spectacular fashion, with 101.63 million units to its credit. Then came a dramatic jump with the Wii U (13.56 million) before the Switch brought things back to life with 141.32 million systems sold – and counting.
The handheld line is slightly less dramatic, with two peaks followed by dips: 118.69m (Game Boy + Color) to 81.51m (GBA), then down to 154.02m (DS) before moving to 75.94 m (3DS). The large “families” of systems under these umbrellas somewhat muddy the waters, and with the Switch combining handheld and home console sales into one, the future is more predictable than ever. On the handheld side, based on past trends, we’ve seen a surge, but only DS sales have surpassed the Switch (at the time of writing) and it’s easy to imagine that Nintendo has nowhere to go but ‘Switch 2’. .
Which would be fine. With the investor jargon and financial focus that has crept into the fandom over the past few decades, it’s easy to associate “down” numbers with numbers that are “bad.” Selling nearly 50 million Super Nintendos isn’t “bad” by any reasonable metric, though it’s more than 10 million less than its predecessor. The Nintendo 64 essentially gave birth to modern 3D console gaming, yet it “lost” the PlayStation. The 3DS is one of Nintendo’s best consoles ever – a stellar machine with an unbeatable library. The fact that it sold less than half the units of its predecessor does not make it a failure.
Nintendo is at its best when it’s doing something different
However, as fans, we’ve all become accustomed to a competitive growth mindset the sea these days. It’s the kind of garbage that fuels the console wars. Movie fans watch the franchise’s box office, watch the opening weekend numbers and the second-week dip, and wait for management to say that, yes, ticket sales have met or exceeded expectations and a sequel has been greenlit — and the grueling cycle begins again. Marketing talk has fully crossed over into fan circles, encouraging the use of words like “content” and “activation” as if it were a normal way to talk. The onus is on consumers to get involved and make noise; when the TV series is re-commissioned, the creators thank us warmly (“We couldn’t do it without you, the fans!”), which silently places the blame on us when a good show is canned. It’s not even the showrunners’ fault – they’re stuck in this feedback loop like the rest of us who don’t run a studio.
It’s this complicated, mutual mess that Nintendo is constantly, painstakingly extricating itself from. Sometimes it makes a company’s decisions seem crazy or counterproductive when they are seemingly common sense and thoughtless actions. Just make DLC boards for Mario Party! Just remake Link to the Past in the Link’s Awakening engine! Make another Switch!
As frustrating as this can be, it’s also the rejection of received wisdom and the refusal to engage in cyclical discourse that allows Nintendo to truly surprise you. You don’t hear excuses on her social channels. You don’t see condescending odes to the passionate, fiery fandom that has fueled its hardcore fans for generations. (“This is Miyamoto. We hear you.”) Indeed, its attitude toward fan communities may seem coldly corporate — or actively hostile when the DMCAs start flying — but Nintendo is famously in the game of surprising and delighting, and you won’t. that through constant communication and empowering only the most vocal members of the fan base to a point of entitlement.
Which brings us to the “Switch successor” and the tension between innovation in Nintendo’s DNA and giving people what they want. After the overwhelming success of the Switch, we all want more of the same. Just, you know, better. 4K, faster, with bigger better third party ports and all backwards compatible with our existing library. I’m betting on a system that maintains the basics of the current console while adding something that distracts from what will essentially be the same handheld-hybrid concept.
Of course, Nintendo has done this before. Think 3DS and its optional (and underrated) autostereoscopic trick. In fact, StreetPass was probably the main differentiator, a social innovation that couldn’t be more Nintendo-like, but wrapped in a very familiar package. After seven years of such life-changing convenience, it’s unimaginable that a new Nintendo system isn’t a pocket-sized computer that connects to a TV.
But is it a lack of imagination on my part? Maybe. Perhaps there’s a better way, developed by the boffins in Kyoto to bring us the best video games: a donut with a pulse sensor in the middle; a holographic box with touchscreen walls; a tube that unfolds into a playpad with a screen. If Nintendo went totally off-piste with the Switch 2 and the result he wasn’t A Wii-like sales sensation, the obvious conclusion would be that abandoning the Switch’s proven formula was a mistake. Again, 100 million sold blockbusters like the Wii would be an underperformance compared to the Switch.
The 3DS is a stellar machine with an unbeatable library. The fact that it sold less than half the units of its predecessor does not make it a failure.
Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely want an iterative Switch successor as much as anyone. But I also love strange Nintendo, the company that makes pedometers and motion-sensing pilates hoops and cardboard robot suits with rubber bands. I really hope the Switch 2 has some of that quirky charm that defines the company’s most imaginative offerings – something more than “just” another Switch. But also another Switch.
As we’ve seen, a system can be wildly successful without reinventing the wheel. Nintendo has done this in the past. Heck, look at Sony and its five PlayStations. Not there need to be a basic reimagining of Wii or DS-style hardware that surprises and truly delights. There’s also the fact that expanding a small portable console with new ideas and fresh peripherals is easier than with a huge big box under the TV.
However, joke how we could about lots Mario parties, all the Wii U double drops, and as the same IP keeps coming back, Nintendo is at its best when it’s doing something different. If the Switch 2 is an iterative revision of the current console, as most of us hope it will be, it’s unlikely to appeal to a fresh blue ocean of gamers. Even with its enviable, inimitable first-party games, purely in terms of sales, all signs point to diminishing returns in the coming generation.
Which is good again! The Switch may not beat the PS2 on the all-time hardware sales charts. “Switch 2” may not outsell its predecessor. If it can deliver unique experiences that move us in the same way that the 3DS did, that will be more than enough to qualify as an emphatic success.
Although it only sells a pathetic 75 million