- Even though the price has fallen, the data showed that BTC has not bottomed yet.
- A deep dive showed that the coin could reach $64,688 if demand continues to increase.
83 days have passed since the prestigious Bitcoin [BTC] A halving event, but the coin shows no glimpse of its traditional post-halving rally. This year, the halving, which reduces the coins created and miners’ rewards, took place on April 19.
During this period, the price of Bitcoin changed around $63,976. This comes after hitting an all-time high of $73,750 in March. As expected, the broader market took the event as key to boosting BTC prices.
Patience is the name of the game
About a month later, BTC retested $71,000. But it didn’t take long for the price to bounce back. In the 83 days since Bitcoin’s halving, the cryptocurrency’s price has undergone significant corrections, losing about 12.76% of its value.
While Bitcoin historically goes through halvings, this one seems out of the ordinary. This is mainly because the price action has been insufficient for about three months.
At press time, the price of BTC was $57,908. According to AMBCrypto’s Puell Multiple analysis, the expected bull run may not be yet.
The Puell Multiple shows the difference between the short-term income of Bitcoin miners and the long-term. It does this by dividing the daily BTC emission by the 365 day emission.
Usually, if the ratio is between 1 and 6, it means the prices are higher. Values ​​above 6 mean that the price may have reached a peak.
On the other hand, if the Puell multiple is less than 1, it means prices are down with values ​​less than 0.40 indicating a bottom.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple was 0.64, indicating that a correction is still underway. However, if the ratio reaches 0.40, it could mean a bottom for Bitcoin and a rebound could be next.
However, it is noteworthy to mention that Bitcoin may take another month to bottom out. If this is the case, the bull run may not occur until the beginning of the fourth quarter (Q4) or near the end of the third quarter.
HODLers don’t just give up
But it’s also important to remember that things can change quickly. If this happens and demand increases, AMBCrypto’s prediction of $75,000 by the end of July could come true.
Despite the lackluster price movement since the halving, long-term holders are showing confidence in the coin’s potential. We observed this after examining the LTH-NUPL.
LTH-NUPL stands for long-term holder-net unrealized gain/loss. This on-chain metric analyzes the behavior of Bitcoin holders who have owned the coin for at least 155 days.
According to Glassnode, LTH-NUPL was in the green zone, indicating belief in BTC’s long-term potential. If this were to remain the same in the future, the demand for Bitcoin could increase, which could push the price higher.
Source: Glassnode
However, if it returns to levels of optimism or fear, Bitcoin’s momentum may slow. Between June 6th and July 7th, the price of Bitcoin decreased by 21.46%.
Is a $71,000 retest possible soon?
While the price was close to retesting $58,000, it is still trading below the 200 EMA (yellow). EMA stands for Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This indicator measures the direction of the trend for the given period.
If the price is trading above it, it means the trend is bullish. But if it is below it, it means a bearish trend. But it was different for Bitcoin as the price was close to the reversal zone
Should this occur, accompanied by signs of increasing bullish momentum from the Awesome Oscillator (AO), Bitcoin could return to its bullish phase.
Specifically, it could prompt Bitcoin to retest its halving and possible trade around $64,688.
Source: TradingView
In a highly bullish case, the price could jump to $71,386, which could set the stage for a bull run that will take the price to $80,000.
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Meanwhile, there have been comments from analysts on Bitcoin’s price action. One of them was from a pseudonymous trade on X Rekt Capital. According to Rekt Capital, it may take a while for the bull run to begin as it stated,
“Bitcoin Not Ready to Break Downtrend Yet”