The dust tail of Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS. Top panel: A cropped version of a computer-processed image of the comet taken by R. Naves with a 30cm f/9 reflector from the Observatorio Montcabre, Spain, in June 2024. Bottom panel: Four syncs that mimic the axial directions of dust grains ejected from the nucleus (large open circle) in different times. Credit: arXiv (2024). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2407.06166
Zdenek Sekanina, an astronomer at La Canada Flintridge in the US, reports what he describes as evidence that Comet Tsuchinshan may have disintegrated before orbiting the Sun. Sekanina specializes in the behavior of comets, specifically analyzing them to predict whether they will split or disintegrate as they approach the Sun.
He believes the comet is likely to break up before it can be seen from Earth and has published his research arXiv prepress server.
Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, better known as C/2023 A3, was first observed by astronomers at China’s Purple Mountain Observatory’s XuYi station just last year. She was subsequently lost, but was later found again by a team in South Africa. Anticipation has been building since its reappearance, as its size and trajectory suggested it would be easily visible during its close pass to Earth this October, perhaps appearing as bright as Jupiter in the night sky.
But the expected show is unlikely to happen, Sekanina suggests in his paper, because the comet is showing signs of disintegration before its arrival.
As comets move closer to the Sun, they begin to lose gas. At closer proximity, they begin to lose dust, creating visible tails. Previous research has shown that the release of gas tends to push the comet forward, like a jet, and can also slightly change its path and spin rate.
Measuring this non-gravitational acceleration allows astronomers to predict the path a comet will take as it orbits the Sun. It is also used for brightness estimates if it passes close enough to be visible from Earth.
In his observations, Sekanina found that the comet did not brighten as much as expected given its size, speed and rotation. And perhaps even worse, it didn’t get any brighter as it approached the sun. The only likely reason is that it is now in an advanced stage of fragmentation. He suggests that it is likely that the comet will break up into pieces too small to be seen from Earth.
More information:
Zdeněk Sekanina, The Inevitable End of Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (C/2023 A3), arXiv (2024). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2407.06166
Information from the diary:
arXiv
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